SITREP, March 2025

The Month in Review

America

Brazil: Commissioner for Home Affairs and Migration Magnus Brunner and the Minister of Justice and Public Security of Brazil, Ricardo Lewandowski, signed on 5 March an agreement on the exchange of personal data between Europol and the Brazilian Federal Police. This will strengthen cooperation between the EU and Brazil in the fight against organized crime and terrorism and build on a strategic cooperation agreement between the EU and Brazil, which has been in place since 2017 and has already facilitated the exchange of non-personal data.

Mexico: Since Donald Trump took office, Mexico has been a constant target of threats of potential military action and new tariffs. Mexico’s president has called for cooler heads to prevail. On the 9th of March, she called for a rally in the center of Mexico City, and some 350,000 people showed up.

Argentina: Argentina announced three days of national mourning late on the 9th of March after authorities raised the death toll from recent flash flooding to 16, with more still missing. The deadly floods struck on the 7th of March when a year’s worth of rain fell in a matter of hours in and around Bahia Blanca, a major port city located in the south of Buenos Aires province, with entire neighborhoods inundated by the fast-rising waters. The Latin American nation has been particularly shaken by tragic reports of two girls, aged one and five, being swept away in the torrent.

Asia

Myanmar: On 20 February, a military airstrike killed four civilians, including two children, in Kyauk Taung village of Pauktaw. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) records the highest number of airstrikes in Pauktaw township this month since November 2023, when the conflict between the military and the United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA) resumed. Overall, the offensive drove an over 64% increase in political violence in Rakhine state in February compared to the month prior.

China: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) launched a sudden live-fire exercise 40 miles south of Taiwan on February 26, likely as a coercive display of force. This exercise follows similarly provocative exercises near Vietnam, Australia, and New Zealand. The PRC broadcasted radio warnings that it would conduct live-fire military exercises in an approximately 1,850 square-mile area near Kaohsiung and Pingtung off Taiwan’s southern coast, overlapping with busy international shipping lanes.

Thailand: Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s February 23-24 visit to several of Thailand’s southern provinces, where Malay Muslim separatists have long waged an insurgency, was preceded by a series of explosions across the area. The visit to the region, which is called the Deep South, was Thaksin’s first since conflict escalated during his incumbency in 2004. The purpose of Thaksin’s visit to the region, in his capacity as an informal adviser to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and representative of the Pheu Thai Party, was to address security and peace challenges in southern Thailand.

Africa

Somalia: Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has embarked on an undisclosed visit to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), as his government grapples with significant financial challenges following the United States’ decision to cut financial assistance to Mogadishu. The visit comes at a delicate time, with Somalia accusing the UAE of undermining its sovereignty. The Gulf nation recently sparked controversy by inviting the leader of Somaliland, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, to the World Governments Summit.

Sudan: The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) captured el Obeid, a state capital in south-central Sudan that will likely support SAF offensives into Rapid Support Forces (RSF) strongholds in Darfur, on February 20. The RSF had besieged the SAF in el Obeid since April 2023. The SAF has advanced westward from positions in White Nile State, around 160 miles south of Khartoum, along an east-west highway that stretches from Khartoum to Darfur via el Obeid since January 2025.

Nigeria: Abuja, the capital of Nigeria, turns to Algiers to mediate with its Sahel neighbors to defeat terrorism financing. Faced with a deteriorating security situation, Nigerian financial intelligence is keen to revive regional cooperation in the fight against the funding of terrorism. To reconnect with Niger and Burkina Faso, they are looking for help from their Algerian counterparts.

Europe

France: Military officials from more than 30 nations will participate in Paris talks on creating an international security force for Ukraine, a French military official said on the 10th of March. Such an international force would aim to dissuade Russia from launching another offensive after any ceasefire in Ukraine comes into effect. The international makeup of the meeting offers an indication of how broadly France and Britain are casting their net as they aim to build what the French official described as a coalition of nations “able and willing” to be part of an effort to safeguard Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire.

Greenland: The island’s strategic location and untapped mineral resources have caught the US president’s eye. Since taking office again in January, he has reiterated his intention to acquire the territory. Greenland and Denmark’s leaders have repeatedly rebuffed his demands.

European Union: A February briefing by the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS) has warned that gang violence is increasing across the EU, a phenomenon linked to “escalating competition between rival criminal groups”. One of the most concerning trends is the recruitment of minors into organized crime and terrorism groups, which recently prompted countries like Sweden to introduce legislation to wiretap children under the age of 15 in an effort to block a wave of bombings - at least 36 since the beginning of 2025. The Violence is often drug-related, particularly in Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, Germany and France.

I am always surprised about how many people travel without sufficient travel insurance.

Let’s be clear: Traveling without travel insurance is a gamble. Accidents, cancellations, and lost luggage aren’t possibilities, they’re inevitabilities. Make sure that your travel health insurance covers everything you will be doing abroad. Some insurances don’t cover high-risk areas, (extreme) sports like diving or skiing, or trips longer than three months. Make sure that your insurance fits your needs abroad.

Don’t set off without it. Seriously, it’s not worth the risk. Travel insurance is your safety net, ensuring that you can focus on the excitement of exploring new horizons rather than stressing about unforeseen setbacks.

Community Q and A

Research potential risks before traveling, download weather apps with alerts, familiarize yourself with local evacuation routes, and have an emergency plan in place.

Pack smartly by including a compact emergency kit with essentials like water, non-perishable snacks, basic first-aid supplies, a flashlight, and backup power sources for your devices. Make digital and physical copies of crucial documents and share your travel plans with trusted contacts back home. Register with your country’s travel advisory service for additional support if traveling internationally.

Remember that when disaster strikes, everyone wants to get out. Get out as soon as you know that a natural disaster will happen. It might not strike or not be as bad as expected, but it is better to be safe than sorry!

Should disaster strike during your journey, staying informed becomes your priority. Monitor local news, follow instructions from authorities, and contact your embassy if abroad. Remember that calm decision-making can make all the difference in an emergency. Each disaster requires specific responses:

• During earthquakes, drop, cover, and hold on.
• For hurricanes, evacuate if directed or shelter in place away from windows
• During floods, seek higher ground immediately
• And for tornadoes, find shelter in interior rooms on the lowest floor.

Have a question? Reply to this email, and we might feature it in next month's Q&A!

From the Team

A special edition of The Safety Huddle: Carsten Dombrowski on what it is like to live and work in Tel Aviv while the conflict is running.