SITREP, January 2026

The Month in Review

Asia

Iran: At least 5,000 people have been killed in protests, including roughly 500 security personnel, an Iranian official said (human rights groups say they have verified over 3,900 people dead with potentially thousands more believed to be killed). The unrest is believed to be the deadliest since the country’s 1979 Islamic Revolution. The announcement comes as President Donald Trump appears to have backed down from threats to strike Tehran, though he reiterated calls for regime change Saturday.

Syria: Syrian government signs ceasefire deal with Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish-led group backed by the US, after seizing control of Kurdish territory. The military push came after tensions flared between central government and SDF earlier this month that resulted in deadly clashes.

Asia & America

Canada & China: Canada agrees to cut its 100% tariff on Chinese EVs. Canada will start by allowing up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles into the country at a 6.1% tariff rate, with the quota rising to 70,000 over five years. Is this escalating US-Canada trade tensions?*

Europe & America

EU & South America: The European Union and four South American countries, the so-called Mercosur bloc, signed their long-delayed free trade agreement. The agreement came despite protests from some European farmers. Protests peaked this week, including thousands gathering with over 700 tractors in Strasbourg on January 20-21, 2026, ahead of and during the EU Parliament vote that referred the deal to the Court of Justice.*

USA & EU: President Donald Trump threatens eight European countries with 10% tariffs starting in February for opposing US control of Greenland. Greenland sits in a hugely strategic location: between the North American and European parts of NATO, between NATO and Russia, and at the eastern end of the Arctic. That is why the U.S. has repeatedly tried to buy the island for more than a century.

Europe

Portugal: Portugal’s presidential election first round saw center-left Socialist António José Seguro lead with 31% of votes, followed closely by hard-right populist André Ventura of Chega at 24%, forcing a runoff on February 8 as no candidate reached 50%. Among 11 candidates, Admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo took 12% and government-backed Luís Marques Mendes a record-low 11%, highlighting voter fragmentation and Chega’s anti-immigration surge. Ventura’s far-right momentum, echoing Europe’s populist wave, risks sparking protests, riots, or demonstrations in Lisbon, Porto, and Madeira ahead of the February 8 runoff, potentially blocking roads, airports, and tourist sites during peak season.

America

Chile: Wildfires in Chile killed at least 18 people and forced at least 20,000 to evacuate. Firefighters faced strong winds and scorching weather with temperatures topping 100° F. In February 2024, forest fires that triggered evacuations in several regions of central Chile killed more than 100 people. Evacuation figure: Senapred, January 18, via The Nation*

Venezuela: CIA director meets with Venezuela's acting president. Officials revealed that CIA Director John Ratcliffe met in Caracas with interim President Delcy Rodríguez. He is the most senior US official to visit Venezuela since the US captured former leader Nicolás Maduro two weeks ago.

Guatemala: Coordinated armed attacks on police in several zones of Guatemala City led the US Embassy to order its staff to shelter in place. The order has been lifted, but Travel Off Path reports that the situation remains tense. Antigua and Lake Atitlán, where most tourists go, are calm. Anyone landing at La Aurora International Airport (GUA) should book private, reliable transport and not linger in the capital.*

The Global Risks Report 2026 is released while the World Economic Forum in Davos remains in full swing.

The WEF’s flagship report warns of a turbulent 2026 led by geoeconomic confrontation as the #1 crisis trigger, amid crumbling multilateralism, economic downturns, and extreme weather. Half of experts foresee stormy times ahead, with 68% expecting a fragmented multipolar world. For travelers, it signals disrupted supply chains, volatile pricing, and conflict spillovers. Plan resilient itineraries now!

5 Travel Safety Tips for 2026

• Diversify transport options and have an escape plan: Airlines or routes are vulnerable to geoeconomic sanctions, cyber attacks, or armed conflicts, which rank as top short-term risks.
• Stockpile essentials offline: Carry maps, cash, and a charged power bank to counter blackouts and infrastructure failures from sabotage or extreme weather dominating long-term threats.
• Monitor local alliances: In a multipolar world (68% expert view), avoid over-reliance on insurance for evacuations or aid during economic volatility.
• Prepare for supply chain shocks: Protectionism and trade wars demand extra medications and flexible tickets amid geoeconomic confrontation as the #1 crisis trigger.
• Stay alert to societal polarization: Fueled by inequality and AI risks, it could spark unrest at destinations. Stay updated to avoid demonstrations and riots, and skip political discussions abroad.

Community Q and A

The Council on Foreign Relations’ 2026 Preventive Priorities Survey ranks 30 global contingencies by likelihood and impact (on U.S. interests), based on 620 experts surveyed in November 2025, amid record-high armed conflicts since WWII.

Tier I Priorities (Highest):

These 10 high-impact/high-likelihood risks demand urgent attention, including West Bank clashes, Gaza renewal, Russia-Ukraine intensification, U.S. strikes in Venezuela, and domestic U.S. unrest; moderate ones cover Iran-Israel war, AI cyberattack on U.S. infrastructure, China-Taiwan crisis, Russia-NATO clashes, and North Korea nuclear tests.

Tier II & III:

Tier II features Sudan civil war escalation, Haiti violence, Yemen crisis, Syria ISIS resurgence, and India-Pakistan conflict; Tier III includes Sahel insurgencies, Nigeria terrorism, DRC militias, Bangladesh unrest, Myanmar collapse, Ecuador violence, Ethiopia-Eritrea clashes, Mozambique insurgency, Afghanistan-Pakistan border fights, and Cameroon instability.

Travelers should monitor these hotspots for spillovers like refugee flows, airspace closures, and economic shocks, e.g., Ukraine/Russia infrastructure hits could disrupt European flights, while Taiwan tensions affect Asia-Pacific routes.

Have a question? Reply to this email, and we might feature it in next month's Q&A.

From the Team

The Safety Huddle No. 28 looks at medical emergencies during close protection work: what a detail can actually do in the first minutes, and what it cannot.

Medics on Tour

Medics on Tour puts healthcare professionals into a working ambulance in Johannesburg alongside South African crews. Episode No. 19 covers what that looks like in practice; bookings at medicsontour.com.

* Corrected in October 2026.