SITREP, September 2026

Dear Reader,

Nepal's glacier collapse led the bulletins this month. Two other developments did not, and they matter as much. The US and Iran passed six months of open war, with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed. And the Ebola epidemic in eastern DR Congo has passed 3,000 deaths while borders close around it. Both change how you plan movement, not just where you avoid.

The Month in Review

Asia & Middle East

Iran. The US and Iran reached six months of open war on 28 August, with no talks underway or scheduled. Hormuz has been effectively closed to commercial shipping since February. European regulators tell operators to avoid the airspace of Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates at all altitudes, plus the Gulf of Oman west of 58 degrees east. Expect GPS interference, reroutes and fuel-driven capacity cuts on any Gulf itinerary. [1] [2] [3]

Nepal. On 26 August a section of the Langtang Lirung glacier broke away near the China border. The ice dammed the Lhende river, then the dam burst and sent a flood wave 72 kilometres down the Trishuli. Nepal counted 903 dead and 4,247 missing on 31 August, approximately 592 of the missing being foreign nationals, with a further 16 dead and 546 missing in Tibet. Later reporting put the Nepal toll above 1,000. Rasuwa is worst hit, the Rasuwagadhi crossing is gone, and Langtang trekking is suspended with no alternative route. A second new lake upstream is being watched as a live flood risk. [4] [5]

Pakistan. On 24 August gunmen on motorcycles attacked a road construction site at Saranan in Pishin district, Balochistan. Six labourers from Punjab were killed. Four days earlier the Baloch Liberation Army had destroyed the local police station and claimed the attack. Police have registered this case against the BLA as well, though nobody claimed the killings. The pattern is the point. Non-Baloch and foreign workers on infrastructure projects are a deliberate target set, and there is no safe unescorted movement in the province. [6]

Thailand. Insurgents ran a coordinated wave of arson and bombings across the Deep South overnight on 22 to 23 August. The first count was 51 incidents, later tallied at roughly 78 across Narathiwat, Yala, Pattani and parts of Songkhla. Three people were wounded. That points to disruption rather than mass casualties as the aim. Nobody claimed responsibility, suspicion rests on Barisan Revolusi Nasional, and peace talks are planned for September. [7] [8]

Americas

Colombia. A magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck near San Jose del Palmar in Choco on 10 August, at a depth of roughly 110 kilometres. By the end of the month reported tolls had risen to more than 330 dead, around 4,600 injured and 240 missing. More than 30,000 homes are destroyed. Over ten airports have taken damage or suspended operations, including Pereira, Armenia, Quibdo and Cali. Expect degraded regional aviation and road access for months. [9] [10]

Haiti. On the night of 23 August the Viv Ansanm coalition attacked Kenscoff, killing 47 people and kidnapping more than 50. At least 22 of the dead were executed inside a prayer centre sheltering displaced families. Kenscoff sits in the hills above Port-au-Prince, and its main road runs down into Petion-Ville, the suburb holding most diplomatic compounds and the major hotels. [11]

Mexico. Sinaloa governor Ruben Rocha returned to office on 21 August. A day later, facing backlash, he asked the state legislature for indefinite leave. A US indictment in April had named him over alleged protection of the Sinaloa cartel. On the ground the Chapitos and Mayos factions remain at war. The military presence has suppressed the worst fighting inside Culiacan and pushed it out into rural Sinaloa. Treat highway movement as high risk and do not drive after dark. [12]

Brazil. The US State Department renewed Brazil's Level 2 advisory on 31 August and added a kidnapping risk indicator. It flags express kidnappings, meaning forced ATM or app withdrawals, alongside armed robbery and drink spiking aimed at foreigners. Rio de Janeiro is singled out. Update client briefings accordingly, in particular for nightlife districts and meetings arranged through dating apps. [13]

Africa

DR Congo. The Bundibugyo Ebola epidemic in eastern DR Congo reached 6,186 confirmed cases and 3,007 deaths by 1 September. It is concentrated in Ituri and North Kivu and still growing by roughly 86 cases a day. Uganda's linked outbreak, seeded by travellers from DR Congo, was declared over on 26 August after 20 cases and 2 deaths. That is the only good news in the file. Uganda has closed most DRC crossings and suspended flights, cross-border buses and river ferries. It screens travellers on the way out, and Canada and the US have imposed arrival measures on anyone who has been in the region. [14] [15] [16]

Nigeria. On 21 August, gunmen attacked a mosque during Friday prayers in Dekera, Niger State. They abducted up to 600 people, including the village head and chief imam. A video showing the captives alive appeared two days later. Police blamed criminal gangs rather than a jihadist group. No rescue or release has been confirmed. The attack shows that kidnapping groups now target large, lightly protected gatherings as well as travellers on roads. [17]

Niger. Overnight on 28 to 29 August, soldiers attacked the presidential palace, the ORTN state broadcaster and Base 101 at Niamey's international airport. They also took several officers hostage. Accounts of the incident differ. The junta described it as a contained mutiny, while state media called it an attempted coup. Russia's ambassador said Africa Corps personnel helped stop the attackers. Security forces now patrol the palace and airport in large numbers. The soldiers issued no public statement, so their aims remain unclear. [18] [19]

South Sudan. On 9 August an attack on a cattle camp in Tonj North, Warrap State, killed 60 people and wounded 50. On 24 August a marked UNMISS patrol was ambushed in Jonglei, killing two peacekeepers and wounding seven people. The second incident is a threshold change. Assume UN and NGO markings buy you nothing, move in convoy only, and plan for escalation ahead of elections on 22 December. [20] [21]

Europe

Germany. On the night of 4 to 5 August a drone carrying a Semtex charge struck the wing of a Ukrainian cargo aircraft at Leipzig/Halle, a hub for Ukraine-bound airlift. The charge failed to detonate and a bomb squad removed the detonator. The north runway closed for two hours. A second drone then struck a Boeing 757 freighter that had gone around because of the closure, and it diverted to Hannover with minor damage. A third drone with suspected explosives was found on 25 August. On 1 September Berlin attributed the attack to people acting on behalf of Russian state entities. [22] [23]

Ukraine. A strike wave on 20 August killed at least 17 people around Kyiv. On 29 August a Russian drone strike detonated an ammunition warehouse at Myla in the Kyiv region, killing 38. It was the deadliest single attack of 2026, and President Zelensky blamed negligence in storing explosives next to housing. He put the late August barrage at roughly 800 jet-powered drones across four days. On the ground, UK defence intelligence assesses Russia holds over half of Kostiantynivka in the Donetsk fortress belt, though analysts still judge an operational breakthrough unlikely in the near term. [24] [25] [26]

France. On 27 August, a driver drove into a crowd outside a bar near Caen station, killing two people and injuring nine. The incident followed a fight in which the crowd had attacked him. He fled but was later arrested in Ouistreham. Prosecutors ruled out terrorism and are treating the case as murder and aggravated assault. Areas around stations can become particularly dangerous when crowds leaving nearby bars mix with moving vehicles. [27]

Contested Airspace: What To Check Before You Book

An airline may sell a flight even when governments advise against using parts of its route. Before booking travel through the Gulf, the Red Sea or areas near Russia and Ukraine, check current government aviation warnings. EASA conflict-zone bulletins and Safe Airspace identify the affected airspace and any altitude restrictions.

Compare these warnings with the entire flight path. The risk may lie over a country you cross, even when your departure point and destination appear safe. GPS interference around the Gulf and Baltic can cause delays, rerouting or diversion. Allow at least three hours for connections involving affected airspace.

Check your insurance terms as well. Some policies exclude travel through or over places covered by a government "Do Not Travel" warning. Routes can change at short notice, so check again shortly before departure.

Community Q&A

"We have booked a two-week cruise. What actually matters at sea?"

At sea, distance makes every emergency harder. Fire, loss of power, medical emergencies and people falling overboard are more likely concerns than a ship sinking. Outside coastal waters, assistance may take hours to arrive.

Attend the safety drill. Find your assembly station and learn the ship's alarm signals. Check the route from your cabin before departure.

Count the doors between your cabin and the two nearest exits. Smoke can make signs and corridors impossible to see.

If there is a fire, raise the alarm, stay low and follow crew instructions. Do not use lifts. Never open a hot door, because fire or smoke may be behind it.

Follow the crew during an evacuation. They know where the emergency is and which routes remain safe. Do not leave the ship unless instructed.

Learn 1-10-1 for cold water. One minute to master the cold shock gasp reflex. Ten minutes of useful hand function. About an hour before unconsciousness. Most people who die in cold water drown in that first minute rather than freeze.

Inflate your lifejacket at the rail, never inside the ship, because in a flooding stairwell it pins you to the ceiling. In the water, float rather than swim. Swimming bleeds heat and spends the hand function you need to board a raft. Knees up, arms in.

Take the seasickness tablet before you need it. Once vomiting starts you cannot keep one down, and dehydration turns a survivable situation into a medical one. In a liferaft almost everybody is sick, and the crew cannot treat all of you.

Plan medication around the ship, not the flight. Bags are taken at the terminal and may not reach your cabin for hours, so the first day's doses belong in hand luggage. Pack a surplus, in labelled original packaging, because one cruise crosses several jurisdictions.

Have a question? Just reply to this email.

From the Team

From the archive: The Safety Huddle No. 26. Robin van Bruggen on search and rescue: how multidisciplinary teams come together, the weight volunteers carry, what technology solves and what it does not, and what it takes to enter the field. It runs 22 minutes, and it lands differently while Rasuwa is still being searched. Listen on YouTube, Spotify or Apple Podcasts.

Stay safe out there,
Inga Faust, Co-Founder, FOXPEDITION™

Sources

[1] CBS News [2] EASA [3] Safe Airspace [4] Al Jazeera [5] PBS [6] Express Tribune [7] Al Jazeera [8] Bangkok Post [9] USGS [10] US Embassy Bogota [11] NPR [12] Reuters via US News [13] US State Department [14] ECDC [15] Al Jazeera [16] Government of Canada [17] Al Jazeera [18] Al Jazeera [19] France 24 [20] UN News [21] UN News [22] NPR [23] Euronews [24] Al Jazeera [25] Kyiv Independent [26] ISW [27] Euronews